2024 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Take Home Trophies For The 'Big 5'?

Quick Links

• 'Best Original Screenplay'

• 'Best Director'

• 'Best Picture'

• 'Best Actor'

• 'Best Actress'

Highlights

• Oscar wins can boost careers with lifelong endorsements for actors, directors, producers, technicians, and writers.
• 2024 Oscar Predictions for the "Big Five" Oscar categories for 2024 are starting to emerge, with top contenders in each.
• Despite stiff competition, predictions were made for the "Best Original Screenplay," "Best Director," and "Best Picture" categories.
• Oscar predictions feature a clear favored winner in some "Big Five" categories, while others involve stiff competition.

The stage is set for the most prestigious night in the film industry, as the 96th Academy Awards will be held in early March in Beverly Hills.

In late January, the Academy formally announced 2024's Oscar nominees – but on March 10th, both the industry and its audience will find out who among the nominated will etch their names in Oscars history forever.

As is typically the case, this year's "Oscar night" will create new icons, catapult some to superstardom, and make or break a number of careers.

Contrary to appearances, the Oscars are never just an ordinary moment where contestants accept a trophy and go home — each Oscar awarded represents an instant, incredible lifelong endorsement for the actors, directors, producers, technicians, and writers who ultimately win.

The Oscars are not just an award show; they're a known career booster, and Oscar wins have opened the door to many opportunities for those who win.

In that shining moment on the stage, when Oscar winners receive the coveted trophy of a golden knight standing on a reel of a film holding a sword, it's talismanic, and a truly magical moment: each statuette awarded comes with career-defining prestige, as well as directors' and producers' sudden interest.

This auspicious night in film is almost here, and Oscar predictions for 2024 are emerging while the world waits to see which nominees will take home the trophy.

2024 Oscar Predictions: What is the "Big Five"? According to Wikipedia :

"At the Academy Awards , the so-called "Big Five" awards are those for Best Picture , Best Director , Best Actor , Best Actress , and Best Screenplay (either Best Original Screenplay or Best Adapted Screenplay )."

Let’s take a peek at the "Big Five" Oscar nominees, who is likely to win in the "Best Original Screenplay," "Best Film," "Best Direction," "Best Leading Actor," and "Best Leading Actress" categories.

For each, we'll also provide our 2024 Oscar predictions, identifying which nominee we suspect will win in their respective categories.

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'Best Original Screenplay'

2024 'Best Original Screenplay' Oscar Nominees:

As is typically the case, all nominated screenplays were written exceptionally well — but there is only a slim chance that May-December and Past Lives could edge ahead and take the "Best Original Screenplay" crown in 2024.

It’s not that those movies aren't strong contenders, our hesitancy is more because they didn’t make a massive splash like Anatomy Of A Fall, Maestro, and The Holdovers did.

Maestro is clearly behind, while Anatomy Of A Fall and The Holdovers are obvious front-runners to win for "Best Screenplay."

The Holdovers didn't win "Best Screenplay" at the recent British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs), nor at the Golden Globes, nor at the National Society of Film Critics Awards.

But state-level award ceremonies – like the Phoenix Film Critics Society, the Oklahoma Film Critics Circle, the San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle Awards, and other regional ceremonies – decreed that The Holdovers warranted a "Best Screenplay" award this year.

Anatomy Of A Fall has received a version of a "Best Screenplay" award elsewhere, including at the Golden Globes, the British Academy Film Awards, and at the Cannes Films Festival.

Influential, big city critics awards in New York, Dublin, London and other major metropolises also bestowed "Best Screenplay" awards upon Anatomy Of A Fall.

Consequently, it's difficult to tell whether The Holdovers or Anatomy Of A Fall has the strongest chance of winning.

The Holdovers is dominating critics' choices in the US, and Anatomy Of A Fall has the most wins across major awards ceremonies outside the Oscars.

Our 2024 Oscar Prediction For "Best Original Screenplay": Anatomy Of A Fall - Justine Triet/Arthur Harari

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'Best Director'

2024 'Best Director' Oscar Nominees:

Yargos Lanthimos, Justin Triet, Martin Scorcese, and Jonathan Glazer have all done a fantastic job, but will likely be runners-up in this category.

Among all the Oscar categories, it seems like the "Best Director" category has a clear favorite for its winner.

It’s strange that a director of stature like Christopher Nolan has never won an Oscar for "Best Director," and was nominated only once before this year – in 2018, for Dunkirk.

Christopher Nolan is behind myriad movie masterpieces in modern film, directing megahits such as The Dark Knight series, Inception, Interstellar, The Prestige, Memento, and Tenet.

But this time, his seventeenth project as director, Oppenheimer, could finally win him the world's most prestigious award for a director.

Nolan has swept other major awards this year, winning at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, the Capri Hollywood International Film Festival, and bagging a Directors Guild Of America award in the "Best Director" category, for Oppenheimer.

Our 2024 Oscar Prediction For "Best Director": Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

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'Best Picture'

2024 'Best Picture' Oscar Nominees:

Off the bat, all selections in the "Best Picture" category are spot on; each film deserves to be on the list.

And it's incredibly hard to predict the "best film" among the many stellar movies nominated in this category.

When nominations were announced, everyone was sure that Barbie would be the top contender to win "Best Picture."

And why not? It was the highest-grossing movie of 2023, earning $1.44 billion at the box office, and it served as a massive pop culture flashpoint.

But at the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Movie Awards, Barbie didn't win – and despite Barbie's long reign at the box office, its perceived ability to win an Oscar dwindled further when it didn't win in the category at earlier, smaller awards shows.

The Holdovers, Killers Of The Flower Moon, and Maestro were just nominated for many industry awards, but they didn't win.

Oppenheimer won "Best Motion Picture For Drama," and Emma Stone’s masterpiece Poor Things was named "Best Motion Picture Musical And Comedy," beating Barbie at the Golden Globes.

Perhaps the Oscars have a surprise in store, and this time, will Barbie finally win a "Big Five" award — or will the Academy give another outstanding story a chance and support Poor Things, or will they go with the safest option, Oppenheimer?

One thing is clear, however: Oscar predictions for "Best Picture" in 2024 are confounded by a crowded field, and a number of movies all deserving of the award.

But we have to predict a winner here, in spite of what looks to be a dead heat among several contenders.

Our 2024 Oscar Prediction For "Best Picture": Oppenheimer

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'Best Actor'

2024 'Best Actor In A Leading Role' Oscar Nominees:

Now, the Oscar prediction game is becoming even more complicated.

Nearly everyone thought Cillian Murphy would be the clear winner for "Best Actor In A Leading Role" at the 96th Academy Awards, for his stunning work on Oppenheimer.

But legendary actor Paul Giamatti's efforts in The Holdovers made a huge impact, and now, Giamatti is gaining traction as a favorite to win.

Giamatti won a Golden Globe for " Best Actor In A Comedy or Musical," as well as a Critics Choice Award:

But ... Cillian Murphy won a BAFTA for "Best Actor," and a Golden Globe for "Best Actor In A Motion Picture Drama."

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Nine critics' awards from different regions signaled a win for Cillian Murphy — but Paul Giamatti’s Critics Choice Award and National Board of Review Award (for "Best Actor") mark him as a major contender, too.

Currently, it looks like the race is mainly between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti for the "Best Actor" Oscar, with both actors highly favored to win.

Our 2024 Oscar Prediction For "Best Actor": Paul Giamatti

'Best Actress'

2024 'Best Actress In A Leading Role' Oscar Nominees:

Once again, there is no doubt that in terms of performance, every actress nominated deserves the Oscar.

But outlying circumstances, critical opinion, and earlier, smaller awards are also giant factors in determining the winner.

In the 2024 Oscar race, "Best Actress In A Leading Role" is considered the "Battle Of The Stones":

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Oscar winner Emma Stone turned in the best performance of her life in Poor Things, and it's hard to ignore both her prior win and blockbuster performance in predicting Oscar winners.

But newcomer Lily Gladstone snatched the limelight from the legendary Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro in Killers Of the Flower Moon, which was a huge achievement in and of itself.

Moreoveer, many Oscar watchers are cheering for Lily Gladstone, specifically as she could change history and become the first Native American actress to win:

"With her Golden Globe win, Gladstone may have become the first Native American to win a trophy from that organization. In turn, she could [become] the first Native American to win an Oscar."

Both Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone won Golden Globe Awards for their respective performances.

The National Award Review and many regional critics awards (like Boston, Dallas, Dublin, Florida, New York, San Diego, and Toronto) favor Lily Gladstone to win and make history.

But the recent BAFTA win for Emma Stone (and a Critics' Choice Awards win) turned the tide towards Emma Stone.

Our 2024 Oscar Prediction For "Best Actress": Emma Stone

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